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US President Donald Trump’s decision to approve a daring mission to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has led people to speculate that Greenland could be his next target. Polymarket’s implied probability of an invasion happening in 2026 is 8%, and the market has attracted over $165,000 in volume so far.
Greenland’s importance as a strategic location in the Arctic
Trump has repeatedly spoken about Greenland’s importance as a strategic location in the Arctic. The White House confirmed on Tuesday that the island is a “national security priority” and that military action could be possible to achieve the outcome of acquiring Greenland.
Denmark has consistently strongly rejected any talk of a takeover. The White House comments came shortly after the release of a joint statement from six major European countries saying that they would defend the semi-autonomous island’s sovereignty. The leaders of Denmark, Spain, Poland, Germany, Italy, France, and the UK agreed that “only Denmark and Greenland can decide on matters concerning their relations.”
The White House is open to alternative ways to secure a desirable outcome, such as purchasing the territory from Denmark or establishing a compact of free association, similar to the one it has with the Marshall Islands.
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