The Dutch government is facing a significant shortfall in its expected gambling tax revenue for 2025, as new industry data reveals a steep decline in legal gambling activity.
Figures from trade association VNLOK show that gross gaming revenue (GGR) reported by licensed online operators dropped over 25% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Consequently, tax income from these operators has fallen to just 83% of last year’s level, despite an increase in the gambling tax rate.
Industry experts blame the downturn on an expanding set of regulatory restrictions that are reportedly driving players toward unlicensed gambling platforms, eroding the legal market. VNLOK’s data, covering operators responsible for around 70% of the Dutch online gambling sector, was independently verified for accuracy.
VNLOK Chairman Björn Fuchs warned that heavy taxation combined with stringent rules is making regulated gambling less attractive. He noted that operators are cutting back on bonuses and payout percentages to offset tax-related financial pressure.
The decline is also impacting the land-based gambling sector. A KPMG report commissioned by VAN Kansspelen found a 7% drop in turnover compared to 2024. According to VAN Kansspelen director Daan Keij, the situation may worsen as long-term closures of physical venues haven’t yet been factored in, and brick-and-mortar businesses face higher fixed costs.
This decline in both online and offline sectors undermines the government’s goal of boosting tax revenue through higher rates. The gambling tax was raised from 30.5% to 34.2% in 2025, with another increase to 37.8% scheduled for 2026—measures expected to generate an additional €100 million this year and €200 million annually starting next year. However, the Netherlands Gambling Authority (KSA) has confirmed these targets are unlikely to be achieved.
Fuchs criticized the assumption that stricter regulation automatically enhances player protection. Since online gambling was legalised in October 2021, measures such as advertising bans, sponsorship restrictions, and mandatory limits on deposits and spending have been rolled out. He argued that excessive regulation may be undermining the entire legal system.
Earlier in 2025, the KSA revealed that while most players still gamble legally, nearly half of the country’s online gambling revenue now flows to unlicensed operators. High-spending players, in particular, appear to prefer illegal sites. In response, Secretary for Legal Protection Teun Struycken has urged a coordinated EU crackdown on illicit gambling platforms, calling them “international criminal organizations.”
If the current trend persists, gambling tax revenue for 2025 is projected to fall to around €800 million – down from the €1 billion collected in 2024.
